Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 18.570657 22.459606 26.779450 31.908182 37.804406 44.343637 52.116335
2025-02-16 12.926218 17.981209 24.220301 32.371205 42.612347 54.921619 70.690021
2025-02-23 9.584285 14.941245 22.129686 32.230551 45.775697 63.010654 86.254336
2025-03-02 7.234299 12.510884 20.138864 31.551350 47.711270 69.249312 99.510165
2025-03-09 5.730848 10.897896 18.882986 31.500098 50.209683 76.124360 113.769599
2025-03-16 4.241491 8.930745 16.703893 29.690827 49.856613 78.860221 122.367953
2025-03-23 3.628688 8.295541 16.473172 30.737133 53.670588 87.590865 139.686021
2025-03-30 2.904516 7.274647 15.409546 30.264468 55.032738 92.737289 152.047552
2025-04-06 2.596150 6.995067 15.582008 31.825388 59.664531 102.965283 172.294527
2025-04-13 1.906203 5.723216 13.706605 29.584244 57.862400 103.168249 177.478184
2025-04-20 1.633976 5.320746 13.432547 30.156478 60.760272 110.813648 194.285699
2025-04-27 1.428062 5.023704 13.318792 30.994760 64.144334 119.372353 212.844121
2025-05-04 1.198813 4.634926 13.025237 31.612298 67.476843 128.508221 233.552925
2025-05-11 1.002856 4.278746 12.755152 32.276488 71.014096 138.309165 256.029454
2025-05-18 0.800640 3.819389 12.147559 32.150898 73.047950 145.655865 274.841120
2025-05-25 0.615618 3.326062 11.342342 31.474101 73.935313 151.027969 290.587795
2025-06-01 0.492016 2.988615 10.857582 31.423026 76.003985 158.538555 310.198806
2025-06-08 0.343381 2.452402 9.690477 29.617364 74.359738 159.265453 318.239580
2025-06-15 0.296643 2.340427 9.719809 30.661581 78.641769 170.979303 345.708839
2025-06-22 0.226622 2.061239 9.168815 30.189859 79.676179 176.709855 362.916537
2025-06-29 0.204520 2.029651 9.403822 31.747678 85.180946 191.085283 395.947420
2025-07-06 0.132285 1.621293 8.257772 29.510996 82.168669 189.069521 399.562818
2025-07-13 0.109246 1.517679 8.156245 30.082084 85.472359 199.395217 425.872804